Dow Jones 2012

For 2011, the Dow Jones Industrial Average officially rose 5.7%, excluding dividends. In case you don’t have these important numbers. Here they are. They tell an important story:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average…

Started 2009 at 8,776 and ended 2009 at 10,428; up 18.8% for 2009.

Started 2010 at 10,428 and ended 2010 at 11,557; up 10.8% for 2010.

Started 2011 at 11,557 and ended 2011 at 12,217; up 5.7% for 2011.

We don’t have to look very closely at the numbers to discover the true trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 57% in 2010 of what it returned in 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 53% in 2011 of what it returned in 2011. If the world’s most widely followed stock market index returns 53% to 57% in 2012 what it returned in 2011, the return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 2012 will be meager at best. This is consistent with my theory that the bear market rally that started in 2009 is getting near the end of its life.